Polls show AD on course for landslide on May 18

The current AD caretaker government looks set to win an absolute majority on election day on May 18 if the latest polls are anything to go by.

The latest poll from Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, TSF, TVI and CNN puts the AD – Aliança Democrática at 34.8%, in front of the opposition party Partido Socialista which has 28.1%, but with a 7.4% gain on the last poll.

Intentions to vote for Iniciativa Liberal (IL) – which might cut a deal with the AD in parliament – stand at 7.4%. With the AD (PSD, CDS-PP, Partido Popular Monárquico and independents) cutting a deal with IL, the result would create a more than 8% lead on the PS party giving it an absolute majority.

On the other hand, the far-right populist party Chega is estimated to garner 15.2% of the vote; less than at the last general election; while the smaller parties that make up the left in Portugal are expected to make modest gains with Livre at 4.4% and CDU (4.1%) whereas the far-left party Bloco Esquerda is expected to become a non-entity at just 1.9% while PAN (People, Animals and Nature) could even fail to get an MP in parliament at all. (0.6%)

And with just weeks to go to the election, the number of those who haven’t made up their mind continues high at 15.4%, not to mention the usual high levels of abstainers. (39%)

The most important debate, between the current caretaker Prime Minister Luís Montenegro and the leader of the PS opposition, Pedro Nuno Santos, was to have been broadcast on Monday evening on RTP, SIC and TVI at 9pm, but the general power outage in Portugal that made headlines across Europe, meant the debate had to be postponed until a later date.

Photo: PSD president, Luis Montenegro, makes a speech during his candidacy for the PSD/CDS/PPM coalition for the legislative elections in the Azores –  in Ponta Delgada,  São Miguel, on April 15, 2025. EDUARDO COSTA/LUSA
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