IMF optimistic for Portugal in 2025 with 0.5% surplus forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) painted a more rosy picture than the government’s for Portugal’s economic performance this year, predicting an 0.5% surplus with continuing modest surpluses until the end of the decade.

According to forecasts made on Tuesday, the IMF believes that Portugal’s public debt will fall to below 90% in 2026, although the rate of fall will be less than the institution’s previous predictions.

In its previous projections published in its annual World Economic Outlook report, the IMF, which is led by economist Kristalina Georgieva (pictured), Portugal had been expected to post a surplus of 0.2% while the current caretaker government put that figure slightly higher at 0.3% of GDP.

The IMF’s revised 0.5% surplus is the best forecast from a basket of institutions such as Portugal’s Council of Public Finances (CEP) which forecast a zero surplus for this year.

However, given the current international landscape, the IMF says that next year Portugal’s surplus will be a modest 0.1% of GDP.

The Minister of Finances, Joaquim, Miranda Sarmento said that the forecasts showed a “solid budget trajectory”.

Image: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers remarks during her 2025 Spring Meetings’ Curtain Raiser Speech at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, USA, 17 April 2025. During her speech ahead of next weeks World Bank Group and IMF 2025 Spring Meetings, Director Georgieva shared that economic growth will be lower and some countries face higher inflation amidst trade tensions, rising economic uncertainty and financial market stress. EPA/SHAWN THEW
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